Asymmetric Noteshttps://asymmetricnotes.com Equity research and supply-chain analysis. Nokia: an AI optics story inside a telco shellhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/nokia-ai-optical-turnhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/nokia-ai-optical-turnMon, 02 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMTAI and cloud sales rose 123% and Nokia owns its own indium phosphide laser fabs. The stock is down 43% from June because the cash isn't showing up yet. Here is what the Q3 print says, and where the price levels sit. Cipher: a landlord sitting on power, with a lot of debt on tophttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/cipher-power-landlord-forensichttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/cipher-power-landlord-forensicMon, 02 Nov 2026 12:00:00 GMTCipher has gone from bitcoin miner to AI data-center landlord with $16.6B of signed leases. The stock is down 76% from its high. A forensic look at the Q3 print, the power and land, and a 2027–2028 model. The leases are real. The equity is a thin, highly geared slice on top of them. AXT: the indium phosphide squeeze, priced for ithttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/axti-indium-phosphide-deficithttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/axti-indium-phosphide-deficitFri, 30 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTAXT makes the wafers under AI's optical lasers. Q3 sales rose 162% and the backlog passed $500M. The shortage is real. At about $56 the price already counts on it. OneSpan and the identity guards: who gets paid when AI agents hit the bankshttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/ospn-identity-security-peershttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/ospn-identity-security-peersThu, 29 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTKorea shows AI-assisted attacks on banks are real. The latest prints show the money reaches the defenders slowly, and mostly in 2027. Mitek and OneSpan sit closest to the bank budget. authID is a going-concern risk. Google Q3 2026: the core beat, the cash did nothttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/googl-q3-2026-capex-billhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/googl-q3-2026-capex-billThu, 29 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTOperating income +30% and Cloud doubled. Free cash flow was −$9.1B. At $293 the market prices in twice our base-case 2035 cash flow. The 20-name board: balance sheet first, growth secondhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/twenty-name-boardhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/twenty-name-boardTue, 27 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTTwenty AI hardware names run through the cash-fortress gate, AI-credit exposure and a three-voice council. SharonAI: a sovereign neocloud, read from the 10-Qhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/shaz-sovereign-neocloudhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/shaz-sovereign-neocloudTue, 27 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTAn $8.8B contract book on $3M of revenue. The cash came from investors, not customers. Q3 deposits are the test. Rambus: a cash fortress the market treats like a chip cyclicalhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/rambus-forensichttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/rambus-forensicTue, 27 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTNet cash, no debt, ~20% growth and no AI-credit exposure. The bear case is DIMM units, not money. Credit stress: who survives the squeezehttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/credit-stress-who-surviveshttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/credit-stress-who-survivesMon, 26 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTHY at 327bp, CoreWeave CDS at 1,115bp, the 10Y at 5%. In this regime the balance sheet ranks first. Demand is real. Funding is the problem.https://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/ai-quality-rankinghttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/ai-quality-rankingSun, 25 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTWho has the cash, margins and FCF to hold up, or bounce first, if the AI trade breaks? Amkor: America's only scale OSAT, priced like a phone supplierhttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/amkor-deep-divehttps://asymmetricnotes.com/articles/amkor-deep-diveFri, 16 Oct 2026 12:00:00 GMTNeeded, but slowly. The Arizona money lands in 2028–2030. The real risk is cash burn, not dilution.