Scorecard

Every call on the record: date, price at the call, fair value, kill levels and what happened since.

By A (Akash Chaudhari)

Every call stays on the record: the date, the value, and the level that would prove it wrong.

• Ouster: color lidar sells, cameras carry the growth, and the cash comes from new shares: Watchlist; value ~$33 weighted; vs price +14% vs $28.98 (2026-11-05)
• Bloom Energy: revenue more than doubled, the cash has not caught up yet: Watchlist; value ~$180 weighted; vs price −18% vs $219.69 (2026-11-05)
• The AI pause scare: $2.8 trillion gone in a day, and the order book is still full: Watch, not panic (2026-11-05)
• MaxLinear: the optical chip ramp is real, the balance sheet is thin: Watchlist, speculative; value ~$72 weighted; vs price +13% vs $63.97 (2026-11-04)
• AMD: the GPU ramp is here, and AMD is helping its customers pay for it: Watchlist; value ~$505 weighted; vs price +4% vs $483.90 (2026-11-04)
• INNIO: the engine maker AI data centers pay up front: Idea board; value ~$21 weighted; vs price +16% vs $18.31 (2026-11-03)
• AI supply chain: the bottleneck moved to power and light: The scarce parts are now power on site and optical lasers, not GPUs (2026-11-03)
• AI macro: a $730B build, 5% rates and a Fed that wants to hike: Late cycle and tightening, not a break (2026-11-03)
• Nokia: an AI optics story inside a telco shell: Watchlist with a positive skew; value ~$10.3 weighted; vs price +20% vs $8.56 (2026-11-02)
• Cipher: a landlord sitting on power, with a lot of debt on top: Watchlist, high risk; value ~$9.1 weighted; vs price +25% vs $7.29 (2026-11-02)
• AXT: the indium phosphide squeeze, priced for it: Watchlist; value ~$57 weighted; vs price +2% vs $56.27 (2026-10-30)
• Google Q3 2026: the core beat, the cash did not: Hold off adding at $293; value ~$167 base DCF; vs price −43% vs $293.04 (2026-10-29)
• The 20-name board: balance sheet first, growth second: Buy list in order: RMBS, MU, KLIC, NOK, PSIX, then SNDK in small size (2026-10-27)
• SharonAI: a sovereign neocloud, read from the 10-Q: Speculative satellite, not core; value ~$31 weighted; vs price +35% vs $22.97 (2026-10-27)
• Rambus: a cash fortress the market treats like a chip cyclical: Accumulate in the $80–90 base, sized for volatility; value ~$114 weighted; vs price +26% vs $90.32 (2026-10-27)
• Credit stress: who survives the squeeze: A credit-led late cycle, not a crash yet (2026-10-26)
• Demand is real. Funding is the problem.: In a fall, own the collectors with net cash and a sane P/E (2026-10-25)
• Amkor: America's only scale OSAT, priced like a phone supplier: Idea board as a toll bridge, entry on hold; value ~$49 weighted; vs price +17% vs $41.82 (2026-10-16)