Asymmetric Notes

Filing-first equity research by A (Akash Chaudhari). Every number links to a dated source.

Latest notes

• Ouster: color lidar sells, cameras carry the growth, and the cash comes from new shares (2026-11-05; OUST, AEVA): Product revenue up 42%, a new Rev8 backlog and $421M of cash with no debt. But lidar units are flat, and the share count rose 23% in a year.
• Bloom Energy: revenue more than doubled, the cash has not caught up yet (2026-11-05; BE, FCEL): Q3 revenue rose 138% to $1.24B and the full-year guide went up for the third time. But two customers made 69% of sales, Q3 free cash flow was −$181M, and the stock already prices a decade of 35% growth.
• The AI pause scare: $2.8 trillion gone in a day, and the order book is still full (2026-11-05): Democrats won Congress and three big states on a promise to slow data centers. The Nasdaq fell 5.5% in a day. A federal pause is a long shot. A slower, costlier build is not, and that changes who gets paid.
• MaxLinear: the optical chip ramp is real, the balance sheet is thin (2026-11-04; MXL, SLAB): Infrastructure sales up 210%, a $250M guide, orders booked into 2028. But operating cash is negative, cash is $81M, and an arbitration still hangs over it.
• Astera Labs: the switch ramp is real, and the stock already halved (2026-11-04; ALAB, CRDO): Revenue up 154%, a $740M guide, $1.38B of net cash. The stock is down 53% from June. What the price now assumes.
• AMD: the GPU ramp is here, and AMD is helping its customers pay for it (2026-11-04; AMD, NVDA): Data Center up 97%, a $17B guide, and Helios racks shipping. Behind it sit warrants for 320M shares and $8.5B of guarantees.
• INNIO: the engine maker AI data centers pay up front (2026-11-03; INIO, GEV): Revenue growth sped up from 42% to 57%. Customer deposits doubled to $1.6B, and most orders are take-or-pay. Behind-the-meter gas engines are the fastest way to power an AI campus. The stock is down 57% from its high, and a lock-up ends at the end of November.
• AI supply chain: the bottleneck moved to power and light (2026-11-03): Layer by layer, from gas engines to indium phosphide. Who is short, who gets paid up front, and who is borrowing to keep up.
• AI macro: a $730B build, 5% rates and a Fed that wants to hike (2026-11-03): The four biggest clouds now spend $200B a quarter. Rates near 5% and wider spreads decide who can keep paying.
• Nokia: an AI optics story inside a telco shell (2026-11-02; NOK): AI and cloud sales rose 123% and Nokia owns its own indium phosphide laser fabs. The stock is down 43% from June because the cash isn't showing up yet. Here is what the Q3 print says, and where the price levels sit.
• Cipher: a landlord sitting on power, with a lot of debt on top (2026-11-02; CIFR): Cipher has gone from bitcoin miner to AI data-center landlord with $16.6B of signed leases. The stock is down 76% from its high. A forensic look at the Q3 print, the power and land, and a 2027–2028 model. The leases are real. The equity is a thin, highly geared slice on top of them.
• AXT: the indium phosphide squeeze, priced for it (2026-10-30; AXTI): AXT makes the wafers under AI's optical lasers. Q3 sales rose 162% and the backlog passed $500M. The shortage is real. At about $56 the price already counts on it.
• OneSpan and the identity guards: who gets paid when AI agents hit the banks (2026-10-29; OSPN, MITK, YOU, IDN, AUID): Korea shows AI-assisted attacks on banks are real. The latest prints show the money reaches the defenders slowly, and mostly in 2027. Mitek and OneSpan sit closest to the bank budget. authID is a going-concern risk.
• Google Q3 2026: the core beat, the cash did not (2026-10-29; GOOGL): Operating income +30% and Cloud doubled. Free cash flow was −$9.1B. At $293 the market prices in twice our base-case 2035 cash flow.
• The 20-name board: balance sheet first, growth second (2026-10-27): Twenty AI hardware names run through the cash-fortress gate, AI-credit exposure and a three-voice council.
• SharonAI: a sovereign neocloud, read from the 10-Q (2026-10-27; SHAZ): An $8.8B contract book on $3M of revenue. The cash came from investors, not customers. Q3 deposits are the test.
• Rambus: a cash fortress the market treats like a chip cyclical (2026-10-27; RMBS): Net cash, no debt, ~20% growth and no AI-credit exposure. The bear case is DIMM units, not money.
• Credit stress: who survives the squeeze (2026-10-26): HY at 327bp, CoreWeave CDS at 1,115bp, the 10Y at 5%. In this regime the balance sheet ranks first.
• Demand is real. Funding is the problem. (2026-10-25): Who has the cash, margins and FCF to hold up, or bounce first, if the AI trade breaks?
• Amkor: America's only scale OSAT, priced like a phone supplier (2026-10-16; AMKR): Needed, but slowly. The Arizona money lands in 2028–2030. The real risk is cash burn, not dilution.

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